Illusion of control over random events

The deceptive security: Why we believe we can control chance (and why this is often an illusion)

Who hasn't experienced this? You always pick the same numbers in the lottery because you feel it increases your chances of winning. Or you throw the dice particularly "carefully" when playing a board game if you need a high number. Maybe you even knock on wood three times before sending an important email to ensure its success.

All these seemingly harmless behaviors are an expression of a fascinating phenomenon of our psyche: the illusion of control. It is the tendency to believe that we have an influence on random or uncontrollable events, or can even predict them.

What's behind it?

The illusion of control is a cognitive distortion deeply rooted within us. It stems from our fundamental need for security, predictability, and the feeling of being in charge of our own lives. We experience a loss of control as unpleasant and threatening, and our brains are masters at developing strategies to minimize this feeling—even if these strategies are purely imaginary.

Some psychological explanations:

• Reduction of fear and uncertainty: When we believe we have control, we feel safer and less anxious in unpredictable situations.
• Desire for self-efficacy: We want to feel like capable and competent individuals who can influence their own destiny.
• Misinterpretation of correlation as causation: Sometimes random events coincide with our actions, and we tend to see a causal connection. ("I wore my lucky sweater, and we won!")
• Pattern recognition: Our brains are programmed to recognize patterns. Even when none exist, we tend to construct them.

Where do we encounter illusion in everyday life?

The illusion of control manifests itself in many areas of our lives:

• Gambling: The prime example. Players often believe they can increase their chances of winning by rolling the dice at specific points, "feeling" the slot machine, or choosing a "lucky number." Studies show that people tend to throw dice more gently when they need a low number and more forcefully when a high number is desired.
• Sport: Fans who cheer on their team in front of the television sometimes believe that their energy or rituals could influence the outcome.
• Financial markets: Investors who believe they can regularly „beat“ the market often ignore the role of pure chance and enormous complexity.
• Everyday rituals and superstitions: From a lucky charm in your pocket to a specific routine before an important appointment – we create small rituals that give us the feeling of influencing the outcome.
• Health: Sometimes people tend to attribute all health problems to avoidable causes, even when a significant proportion is genetic or purely accidental, which can lead to feelings of guilt.

The other side of the coin

While a certain degree of optimism and a sense of self-efficacy can be positive, the illusion of control also carries risks:

• Poor decisions: We waste energy or resources on things we cannot influence, instead of focusing on what is truly within our power.
• Frustration and guilt: If the desired results fail to materialize, we may feel frustrated or blame ourselves, even though chance played the real role.
• Loss of touch with reality: It can prevent us from accepting reality as it is, with all its unpredictability.

What can we do?

The first step is recognition: knowing that this illusion exists and becoming aware of its own manifestations.

Instead of trying to control chance, we can focus our energy on what we can actually control:

1. Our preparation: We can improve our skills, inform ourselves thoroughly, and develop good strategies.
2. Our effort: We can do our best and commit ourselves.
3. Our attitude and reaction: We can decide how we deal with unforeseen events, whether we let ourselves be discouraged or develop resilience.
4. Acceptance of uncertainty: Learning to live with the fact that some aspects of life will always remain uncontrollable. This does not mean resignation, but rather serenity.

The illusion of control is a deeply ingrained human phenomenon, difficult to overcome. But when we learn to distinguish between what we can influence and what is left to chance, we gain something far more valuable than illusory control: genuine self-efficacy and inner peace.